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附 錄A
電動車：正在進行的綠色交通革命？
隨著世界上持續(xù)的能源危機，戰(zhàn)爭和石油消費以及汽車數(shù)量的增加，能源日益減少，有一天它會消失得無影無蹤。石油并不是可再生資源。在石油消耗枯竭之前必須找到一種能源與之替代。隨著科技的發(fā)展和社會進步，電動車的發(fā)明將會有效的緩解這一燃眉之急。電動汽車將成為理想的交通工具。
面臨能源成本居高不下、消費者和政府更加重視環(huán)境保護的情況下，世界汽車制造商正加大對可替代能源性混合動力汽車技術(shù)的開發(fā)投資。該技術(shù)能極大削減燃料消費，減少溫室氣體排放。許多人把目光投向了日本和美國的汽車制造商，關(guān)心他們開發(fā)混合動力和電池電動車的進展情況。豐田普銳斯一躍成為世界上銷量最好的混合動力車。美國的新興汽車制造商，Tesla Motors，推出了該公司首部電池電力車，名為Tesla Roadster。截至2010年底，通用汽車公司計劃推出備受贊譽的Volt混合動力汽車，而克萊斯勒公司最近已經(jīng)宣布同樣的計劃正在進行之中。
目前，中國在新能源汽車的自主創(chuàng)新過程中，堅持了政府支持，以核心技術(shù)、關(guān)鍵部件和系統(tǒng)集成為重點的原則，確立了以混合電動汽車、純電動汽車、燃料電池汽車為“三縱”，以整車控制系統(tǒng)、電機驅(qū)動系統(tǒng)、動力蓄電池/燃料電池為“三橫”的研發(fā)布局，通過產(chǎn)學研緊密合作，中國混合動力汽車的自主創(chuàng)新取得了重大進展。形成了具有完全自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的動力系統(tǒng)技術(shù)平臺，建立了混合動力汽車技術(shù)開發(fā)體系?；旌蟿恿ζ嚨暮诵氖请姵兀ò姵毓芾硐到y(tǒng)）技術(shù)。除此之外，還包括發(fā)動機技術(shù)、電機控制技術(shù)、整車控制技術(shù)等，發(fā)動機和電機之間動力的轉(zhuǎn)換和銜接也是重點。從目前情況來看，中國已經(jīng)建立起了混合動力汽車動力系統(tǒng)技術(shù)平臺和產(chǎn)學研合作研發(fā)體系，取得了一系列突破性成果，為整車開發(fā)奠定了堅實的基礎(chǔ)。截止到2009年1月31日，在混合動力車輛技術(shù)領(lǐng)域，中國知識產(chǎn)權(quán)局受理并公開的中國專利申請為1116件。 在1116件專利申請中，發(fā)明為782件（授權(quán)為107件）、實用新型為334件。
同美國、日本、中國以及和其他國家一樣，歐洲的一部分國家也宣布了關(guān)于采用推廣電動車的大膽的計劃，包括財政激勵、資助電池和電動車的研究、還有關(guān)于充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的調(diào)配分布計劃。像倫敦和巴黎這樣的主要城市已經(jīng)宣布了電動車共享系統(tǒng)，而擁有大型自有車隊的公共管理部門和公司需要采購電動車。
與此同時，公用事業(yè)、汽車制造商、電池生產(chǎn)商和學者等共同參與發(fā)起了如歐盟電動汽車工作隊和EpoSS——歐洲技術(shù)平臺的智能系統(tǒng)一體化等項目。協(xié)同歐洲投資銀行一起，歐盟委員會已經(jīng)推出了歐洲綠色汽車計劃，這50億歐元將部分地投入在電池和電動車的研究、開發(fā)、制造、以及示范項目上。
這一陣活動似乎表明，電動汽車最終將是一個重大突破。但是這次，它會在這里停滯不前嗎？歷史告訴我們要謹慎。電動汽車早在1883年就開始生產(chǎn)了——比內(nèi)燃機汽車早52年。然而，1913年以后，內(nèi)燃機的大規(guī)模商業(yè)化導致電動汽車快速下降。在過去幾十年里，嘗試重新引入電動汽車的努力大部分未獲成功，它們?nèi)匀淮硪粋€非常小的利基市場。
電動汽車未來發(fā)展的重大問題之一是電池性能的改良速度。釵電池嚴重限制了電動汽車的性能，因為相比內(nèi)燃機汽車，釵電池為整個汽車平添了220公斤的重量。當今的大多數(shù)客用汽車都在城市行駛，因此在通常情況下路途較短、速度較慢，所以這一問題似乎并不像歐美等其他市場那樣嚴峻，因為那里的平均行駛路程更長，最高速度也更快。電動汽車技術(shù)的持續(xù)研發(fā)正大幅改善著汽車的性能。美國A123Systems公司，世界最大的高能釵電池生產(chǎn)商之一，宣布汽車每次充電后，電池能夠驅(qū)動汽車行駛200公里。東芝公司最近也宣布正式推出超級充電電池，而這種電池在j分鐘以內(nèi)就可以充滿90%的電量。
但是今天，未來看起來更加光明：電池技術(shù)已經(jīng)取得許多重大進展，電動車有望在未來幾年內(nèi)大規(guī)模重新進入市場?；谶m度增長情況的假定，到2050年，電動車會在新銷售額中占有超過60％的比例，并構(gòu)成25％的全球汽車車隊。不過，由于現(xiàn)在還有一些相關(guān)技術(shù)開發(fā)和未來消費者行為的不確定性，對未來部署規(guī)模的估計會有很大變動。
電動汽車的一大好處是減少排放到大氣中的溫室氣體。當我們計算可替代能源動力汽車技術(shù)的碳減排總量時，不僅計算機車排放的CO2總量，而且還包括機車在整個生命周期的排放數(shù)量，從發(fā)電直到燃料運輸時產(chǎn)生的CO2排放都包含在其中。
2008年8月，麥肯錫全球團隊研究了北美、歐洲、中國和印度的乘用車行業(yè)。團隊基于現(xiàn)有技術(shù)和商業(yè)運行可行性選取并研究了四種可替代能源汽車技術(shù)。他們通過與傳統(tǒng)的消耗汽油或柴油的內(nèi)燃機(ICE)汽車進行對比。
改良型汽油和朱油動力汽車:傳統(tǒng)內(nèi)燃機(ycE)汽車采用了減排技術(shù)，如采用有助于引擎高效燃油的可變換閥門控制、通過降低摩擦節(jié)約燃料的低滾動阻力輪胎。改良型內(nèi)燃機動力汽車在其生命周期中可能減少51%的碳排放量。
全混合動力汽車:全混合動力汽車主要消耗汽油，而在加速時以電池驅(qū)動。汽車的動力來源主要依靠內(nèi)燃機。再加上上述內(nèi)燃機改進技術(shù)，全混合動力汽車在其生命周期中可能減少50%的碳排放量。
壓縮天然氣(CNG)汽車:壓縮天然氣汽車一般被認為是采用清潔能源的車型，但在其生命周期中的碳減排空間完全取決于天然氣來源——天然氣運輸距離越遠，該車型“從油井到油箱”的排放量就越。假設(shè)天然氣來自當?shù)貧庠矗瑝嚎s天然氣汽車在生命源大周期中碳減排量和混合動力汽車接近，為55%。
電動汽豐:電動汽車包括插電混合動力汽車(PHEV)和電池電動汽車(BEV)。與全混合動力汽車相比，插電混合動力汽車裝有更大的電池，因此使得汽車可以在沒有內(nèi)燃機的輔助下所行路程更遠。這種汽車可以用標準插座充電，只需內(nèi)燃機提供少許動力。電池電動汽車一直要電池提供動力，而不需要內(nèi)燃機機制的幫助?？蓱]到中國依賴謀電站發(fā)電，當今的電動汽車依靠現(xiàn)在的內(nèi)燃機技術(shù)只能夠有減少19%碳排放量的空間;然而，如果在電力供應方面使能源構(gòu)成更加多元化，并向可替代能源轉(zhuǎn)變的話，碳減排量會增加至49%。
雖然電動汽車具有零尾氣排放的特點，但是，在電力生產(chǎn)過程中會有排放。比如說，倘若沒有采用新動力汽車技術(shù)的協(xié)同行動，中國乘用車的CO2排放水平到2030年可達12億噸。然而，我們的研究顯示，中國可以通過采用各種可替代動力汽車技術(shù)實現(xiàn)高達45%的乘用車減排量。對比其他的動力汽車技術(shù)，電動汽車的減排空間似乎較小。全混合動力汽車的減排量可達56%，但是電動汽車只有19%的減排空間。原因是中國仍然依靠火電站提供高達85%的電量供應。但是，如果可替代能源到2030年占中國電力供應的50%，那么電動汽車的碳減排空間則可提高至49%，即大體上與其他技術(shù)的減排水平相當。原因是，中國仍然依靠火電站提供高達85%的電量供應。
由此也可以衍生出電動汽車的一個另一個好處是將城市中有害的空氣污染“位移”到農(nóng)村地區(qū)，那里的人口暴露較低；噪音水平也較低，特別是在城市的駕駛條件。
電動車的另一個主要優(yōu)勢是能源效率。擁有60%—80%的“油箱到車輪”效率，使得電動車優(yōu)于傳統(tǒng)汽車四倍。總的來說，電動車在低速和頻繁換擋的情況下顯示出了強大的節(jié)能功效，這也是城市成為主要目標市場的另一個原因。
電動汽車也將為軟件開發(fā)商帶來機遇。電力機車需要安裝提示司機有關(guān)汽車重要數(shù)據(jù)狀態(tài)的電子界面，包括燃料電池的使用情況、GPS導航系統(tǒng)的每秒更新等等。由風險投資支持的新興公司Better Place正在開發(fā)一種名為AutOS的綜合信息管理系統(tǒng)，該系統(tǒng)可以告知司機最近的電池充電站的位置以及其他信息。雖然燃料電池和其他相關(guān)技術(shù)在大幅降低CO2排放量方面前景廣闊，但是其商業(yè)應用仍尚需時日。然而，投資電動汽車并不意味著汽車制造商和供應商應該停止對其他技術(shù)的研究。反而，他們應該保持一種平衡的技術(shù)組合，即將電動汽車作為近期的解決方案，而將其他技術(shù)，如燃料電池等，視為長期的解決方案。因為一旦上述技術(shù)具有商業(yè)可行性時，將會帶來可觀的回報。
感謝其能源效率，如果發(fā)電在未來將更加環(huán)保，電動汽車將有助于溫室氣體的大幅減少。鑒于對氣候變化進行的考慮，這可能被證明是一個重要因素。事實上，交通對歐盟的溫室氣體排放量需要負五分之一以上的責任，并且它是排放量不斷增長的唯一部門。雖然改善內(nèi)燃機仍有可能減少每公里駕駛的排放量，但要使溫室氣體排放減少50％以上，就需要新的技術(shù)解決方案，如電動車。
相對于傳統(tǒng)的汽車，并在目前歐洲平均電力供應的基礎(chǔ)上，電動汽車有50％的更少的排放量。如果隨著更多的綠色和可再生能源的使用，發(fā)電的碳強度持續(xù)下降，則可以進一步獲益。
電動車似乎終于到了發(fā)生重大突破的臨界點，尤其是它能夠在城市中提供巨大的環(huán)境效益。創(chuàng)新的商業(yè)模式即將到來，這必將提升消費者的接受度。然而，綠色電力供應仍存在一些障礙：昂貴的電池技術(shù)，有限的駕駛范圍，和對于電動充電設(shè)施密集網(wǎng)絡(luò)的需要。為了克服這些障礙，創(chuàng)新的商業(yè)模式正在發(fā)展，以便助于轉(zhuǎn)變汽車運輸。
附 錄B
The Electric Car-a Green Transport Revolution In The Making?
As the word’s continuing energy crisis, and war and oil consumption and energy car full with the amount of increase, decrease energy day by day, one day it will disappear without a trace. Oil is not living resources. Oil consumption in the net must be to find a substitute before. With the development of technology and social progress, the invention of the electric vehicles will be effective help ease the financial difficulty. Electric cars will become the ideal means of transport.
Faced with high energy costs and rising consumer and government concern over the fate of the environment, the word’s automakers are stepping up investment in the development of alternative power train technologies that promise to substantially cut fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Much attention to-date has focused on advances by Japanese and American automakers in the development of hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Toyota’s, Pries has emerged as the best-selling hybrid car in the world. Tesla Motors, a US-based start-up, has launched its first battery electric vehicle, the Tesla Roadster. By the end of 2010, GM plans to launch its much-touted Volt hybrid, while Chrysler has recently announced similar plans.
The Chinese government also has the National High Technology Research and Development program (863 Program) specifically listed, including hydride vehicles, including electric cars of major projects. At present, China’s independent innovation of new energy vehicles in the components and system integration focusing on the principles established in hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles as a “three vertical”.
Several European counters as well as U.S, china and others, have recently announced bold plans for the introduction of electric vehicles. These include fiscal incentives, funding research on batteries and electric vehicles and plans for the deployment of a charging infrastructure. Major cities such as London and paris have announced electric car-sharing systems, while public administrations and companies using large captive fleets are purchasing electric vehicles.
At the same time, utilities, car manufacturers, battery producers and academics are joining forces on initiatives such as the EURELECTRIC Task Force on Electro Vehicles and Epos, the European Technology platform on Smart Systems integration. Together with the European investment Bank the European Commission has launched the European green cars initiative, with EUR 5 billion partly dedicated to the research, development and manufacturing of batteries and electric cars and to demonstration projects.
This flurry of activity seems to indicate that the electric car is heading for a major breakthrough at last-but is it here to stay this time? History calls for caution, the production of electric vehicles. However, after 1913the mass commercialization of the combustion engine led to a rapid decline in electric vehicles. Attempts to reintroduce electric vehicles in past decades have for the most part been unsuccessful and they still represent a very small, niche market.
One of the biggest issues facing the potential take-up of electric vehicles is the rate of improvement in the performance of electric vehicle batteries. The biggest drag on electric vehicle performance comes from the lithium-ion battery, which can add another 220 kilograms to the total weight of a car, versus an ICE-powered vehicle. Since most passenger vehicles in china today are driven in urban areas, where shorter distances and slower speeds are the norm, this may not prove to be as vexing an issue as it is n other markets such as the US or Europe, where the average driving distance and top speed are considerably longer and higher. Continued research and development into electric battery technology is generating promising improvements in performance. US-based A234Systems, one of the world’s largest producers of high-power lithium-ion batteries.
Announced a battery capable of powering a car for 200 kilometers between charges. Toshiba recently announced the commercial launch of its Super Charge battery, which can be charged to 90 percent capacity in less than five minutes.
Yet today the future looks brighter. A great deal of progress has been made in battery technology and electric vehicles are expected to re-enter the market on a large scale within the nest couple of years. Based on a moderate growth scenario, by 3050, electric vehicles could represent more than 60% of new sales and constitute up to 25% of the global car fleet. However, estimates of the extent of future deployment vary greatly, as there is still some uncertainty in relation to the development of technology and future consumer behavior.
One of the primer benefits of electric vehicles is, of course, the reduction of Green house gases emitted into the atmosphere. Our calculation of the total carbon abatement potential of alternative power train technologies counted not only the CO2 emissions that vehicles produce, but also emissions produced through out their entire life-cycle, from the CO2 emitted during the generation of electric power through to the transportation of fuel.
Over a period of 8 months in 2008, a global McKinsey team studied the passenger vehicle industries in North America, Europe, China, and India. The team examined four power train technology alternatives, chosen on the basis of existing technologies and their near-term commercial feasibility. They contrasted them to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel.
Full hybrid vehicles: Running primarily on gasoline, full hybrids are powered by a battery during acceleration of the vehicle, but draw most of their power from an internal combustion engine. Full hybrids, equipped with ICE improvement technologies mentioned above, have a life-cycle carbon abatement potential of 56 percent.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles: CNG vehicles are normally perceived to be a source of clean energy, but their life cycle carbon abatement potential depends wholly on the source of the gas一the greater the distance the gas needs to be transported, the higher this power train's "well-to-tank" emissions. CNG cars rank close to hybrids in their life-cycle carbon abatement potential at 55 percent, assuming the gas comes from local sources.
Electric vehicles: Electric vehicles include plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Compared with full hybrids, plug-in hybrid vehicles contain a much bigger battery that can power the vehicle for a longer distance without the aid of an internal combustion engine, can be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion engine. Can be recharged by plugging them into standard electric sockets, and derive a smaller proportion of their propulsion from the internal combustion engine. Battery electric vehicles run solely on battery power without the aid of any internal combustion mechanism. Given reliance on coal-fired plants for electricity.
electric vehicles today only have a 19 percent carbon abatement potential over current internal combustion engine technologies; however, this can be increased to as much as 49 percent if diversifies its energy mix towards alternative energy sources for its supply of electric power.
Electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, but there are, of course, emissions involved in the production of electricity. As an example, with no concerted action to adopt new power train technologies, the level ofCO2 emissions from passenger cars in China could reach nearly 1.2 billion tons in 2030. However, our research showed that by adopting a mix of various alternative power train technologies, China could cut emissions from passenger vehicles by up to 45 percent. Relative to other power train technologies, electric vehicles demonstrate a some what weaker carbon abatement potential. While full hybrid cars have an abatement potential of 56 percent, electric vehicles' potential stands at 19 percent. This can be explained by the fact that China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply. This can be explained by the fact that China still relies on coal-fired plants for as much as 85 percent of its electricity supply.
It also can blossom into another electric car benefits of electric vehicles is the “displacement “of harmful air pollutants from urban to rural areas, where population exposure is lower. Noise levels are also lower, particularly in urban driving conditions.
Another major advantage of electric vehicles is their energy efficiency. With a tank-to-wheel efficiency in the range of 60 to 80%, they outperform conventional cars four-fold. Generally, electric vehicles show greatest energy savings at low speeds and in situations involving frequently-changing driving dynamics, which is another reason why cities are a prime target market.
Electric vehicles will also create opportunities for software developers. Electric vehicles require an electronic interface that informs the driver of the status of the car's vital statistics, from fuel and battery usage, to split-second updates in GPS navigation systems. Venture-backed start-up Better Place is developing a comprehensive information management system it calls AutOS. That will, among other things, inform the driver of the nearest battery-charging stations.
While other technologies such as fuel cells hold great promise in reducing CO2 emissions, its commercial application remains years away. Investing in electric vehicles, however, does not mean Chinese OEMs and suppliers should stop their research into other technologies. Rather, they should maintain a balanced technology portfolio, with electric vehicles being a near-term solution, while viewing other technologies such as fuel cells as a potential long-term solution that could yield returns once the technology becomes commercially viable.
Thanks to their energy efficiency, and assuming that electricity generation will be even greener in the future, electric vehicles could contribute to a considerable reduction in greenhouse gases. Given the ongoing debate on climate change, this could prove to be an important factor. Indeed, transport is responsible for more than a fifth of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and it is the only sector with growing emissions. While the improvement of internal combustion engines still offers considerable potential for reducing emissions per kilometer driven, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over and above 50 % will require new technological solutions, such as the electric vehicle.
Compared to conventional vehicles, and based on the current average European electricity supply, electric vehicles have 50% less emissions. Further benefits can be achieved if the carbon intensity of power generation continues to decrease with further greener and renewable energy sources.
The electric car finally seems to be on the verge of breaking through, offering significant environmental benefits, especially in urban areas. There are, however, still some obstacles related to green electricity supply, the as yet expensive battery technology, the limited driving range and the need for a dense network of electric charging facilities. To overcome these obstacles, innovative business models are being developed to help transform automotive transport.