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譯文題目：GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY NICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN B?GU
汽車工業(yè)的全球視野
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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
NICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN B?GU
ABSTRACT: The automotive sector is characterised by a relatively low trade/sales ratio. While the production of most automotive producers in the world is spread over various countries in the value chain, the brands are still considered to reflect some national identity. Internationalisation strategies may change over the lifecycle of the product and automakers tend to pursue diametrically opposed strategies. In mature markets, it is about managing what goes on beneath a static surface; in emerging markets’ dynamic environments, companies must strategically position themselves to benefit from growth opportunities. However, without the right strategy and execution in mature markets, it is clear that traditional OEMs cannot profit from emerging markets-the persistence of structural issues in mature market operations eventually will rob all but the most resilient competitors of the opportunity to compete in emerging markets.
KEY WORDS: competitiveness; automotive industry; global market; sales; investment
1. INTERNATIONAL MARKET
In Europe, the restructuring process is characterised by the shift east with the new EU member states in Central and East Europe (CEE) acting as the Western’s pressure valve against a background of stagnating sales, rising raw material costs, increased competition from Asian automakers and falling new car prices. CEE gives automakers access to less costly labour and new customers, and it allows new entrants,such as Hyundai and Kia, to compete without legacy costs. The net effect has been a rebalancing of automaker footprints in the region with Western Europe losing 1.5 million in capacity since 2000, while CEE countries will have added 1.8 million units of capacity by 2009. While mature market OEMs gradually come to grips with the market-specifi c challenges presented to them, multifarious strategic challenges weigh just as heavily before emerging market investments are considered. Strategic challenges emanate from two sources-legislation or competition-and both add costs to competing in markets where better performance will originate only by increasing market share or reducing costs. Such constraints include increasing fuel economy or CO2 objectives, recycling initiatives (e.g., the EU’s End of Life Vehicle Directive), changing consumer tastes, vehicle content escalation, premium brand growth, rising commodity prices and globalised supply chain management, among others.
Figure 1. Global perspective
Once automakers meet these mature market challenges, the next stage is to compete effectively in the world’s growth markets. From 2007 to 2015, emerging markets are expected to represent 18 times the estimated growth in light vehicle assembly as mature markets in the same period. PwC forecasts that 95 percent of light vehicle growth will originate from emerging markets. Among these markets, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are most eminent in the growth stakes, with more than 58 percent of forecasted growth from 2007 to 2015 stemming from them. Of the BRIC countries, PwC expects China and India to lead the growth in light vehicle output as OEMs look to sate the demands of a combined population of more than 2 billion people, with the less populous-but still strategically important-Russia and Brazil expected to grow less rapidly.
With these divergent focuses of OEMs’ strategies, those competitors that best execute emerging and mature market strategies will be the winners. Those managing location issues with the concomitant capacity, together with a product portfolio that addresses anomalous market needs at the most attractive cost, will profit from the challenging global environment. Of the various competitors, it would seem that Toyota, despite a recent slowing of its growth in North America and Europe, is executing the most balanced global strategy. By 2015, PwC forecasts Toyota to remain the leading global alliance group with a forecast light vehicle output of 11.3 million. Behind Toyota lies the growth forecast for GM, thanks to its strong emerging market presence,and the dynamic Renault-Nissan alliance. While the emerging market or low-cost car was once an important differentiator for Renault-Nissan, many of its competitors are looking to launch competing vehicles-e.g., Toyota with its EFC program and VW with its NCC program. Low-cost vehicles will take on increasing importance for global automakers as they seek to accelerate the development of emerging markets and thus reduce the pressure to perform in the world’s highly competitive and challenging established markets.
2.EUROPEAN UNION OUTLOOK
Despite a short period of contraction from 2000 to 2003, Western Europe has enjoyed considerable stability since the late 1990s, with sales hovering around the 14.5 million mark in the mid-2000s. A lack of dynamic growth is a feature of a mostly mature market such as Western Europe, where replacement cycles and the prevailing economic situation drive demand. Economic growth in countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Romania (joined 2007), has spurred a boom in sales volumes. The star performer has been Romania, where sales rose more than 25 percent in 2007-08, thanks to the improving economic situation and the rollout of the Dacia Logan-exactly the type of low-cost car designed to boost sales in emerging markets. Poland also seems to be reaching its potential, with sales increasing almost 23 percent year-on-year and totalling 293,000 in 2007.
Figure 2. European regions assembly 2000 vs. 2010 (milion units)
In Western Europe, a mosaic of factors influences the new car market. In Germany, the impact of the 3 percent increase in WATT continues to hold the German market back, so that despite a high average vehicle parc age and increasingly positive economic news, sales in 2007 were down almost 10 percent from 2006. Of the other big-fi ve markets, Spain also has moved into the negative, as the country’s construction-driven economic boom ended and consumer confidence declined. Italy,France and the UK posted above-average year-on-year growth for 2007, with Italy, in particular, performing well (up 7 percent), thanks in part to a raft of new vehicle introductions from domestic OEM Fiat. The UK (up 2.5 percent) and France (up 3.2 percent) also posted positive fi gures; however, increasing disquiet about the general economic situation- stubbornly high unemployment fi gures in France, the increased cost of credit in the UK, and the rising cost of living in almost all markets (mature and emerging)-suggests the picture for 2008 will not be so rosy
3. SUPPLY SITUATION
Due to the stable demand noted above, EU light vehicle output also has remained steady. Light vehicle assembly output rose to 18.830 million units in 2007, a significant increase above the previous peak of 18.065 million units in 2000. Following several years of near-fl at growth, output increased almost 1 million units in 2007. Looking ahead, light vehicle assembly output should continue to grow, at least until 2013. Then it is projected to reach 20.749 million units, almost 2 million units more than 2007’s output. After this, volume likely will stabilise around 20.7 million units. The source of this growth will be twofold. First, a combination of market recovery and, more importantly, new model programme investment will see increased output from traditional Western European automotive assembly countries Germany, France and Italy. Collectively, these three will see an increase in excess of 800,000 units between 2007 and 2015. Second, the countries of Central Europe, specifically those that acceded to the European Union in 2004 and 2007, also will see significant volume gains. Growth of their export industries and burgeoning domestic demand will drive this increase. The key assembly locations in Central Europe will be the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Romania. Collectively, they will account for more than 1 million units of extra assembly volume between 2007 and 2015. Investment activity by specific alliance groups naturally will have a significant effect on volume growth. The top five contributors to growth during the 2007-2015 period will be Hyundai Group, VW-Porsche, Fiat Group, Renault-Nissan and Ford Group. Renault-Nissan and Ford will enjoy volume growth, thanks to investments in Romania. In all these cases, automakers will rely on both domestic sales (in mature and emerging European markets) and, increasingly, exports to underpin these growth strategies. In the important Central European markets of Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia, OEMs will add more capacity to take advantage of the lower-cost location and potential for domestic sales growth. Hence the model mix in these plants will be a combination of low-cost, emerging market products and higherend vehicles for export to developed markets in Europe and around the globe. Romania, in particular, has become the new focus for investment. Between 2007 and 2015, its new capacity will expand by a projected 330,000 units. Some of this will be continuing expansion of the Dacia business by owner Renault, but the recent acquisition of a plant (with guarantees of capacity expansion) by Ford also is a major driver. Thanks to accession, Romania is increasingly on the agenda of other OEMs looking to adjust their European footprints. Sales in Romania are represented in tabel 1.
The Russian market is unusual in having so many foreign players with such initially low forecast production plans. Most vehicle manufacturers appear to be hedging their bets wisely and planning a balanced strategy of local production and continued import. Depending on how investment conditions in Russia develop, vehicle manufacturers have the opportunity to increase or decrease the balance between import and local production. The tables below illustrate the latest Automotive Institute estimates of planned local production levels by brand origin over different time horizons. The next table indicates that production of foreign automotive brands in Russia could rise from about 450,000 in 2007 to a sustainable level of around 3 million units within seven years. Nearly all of this growth will be foreign OEM brands or new Russian brands developed in collaboration with foreign strategic investors, such as between Avtovaz and Renault. What does this imply for the future of the automotive component industry in Russia?
Figure 3. Car sales
Out of general economic necessity, most vehicle manufacturers will be trying to localise even more of their component supply to reduce customs duties and transport costs, and to benefit from local wage and raw material costs. If this trend is successful, the percentage of OEM components locally manufactured should increase from 10 percent to more than 50 percent over the next ten years, assuming that component cost is about 60 percent of the price of the car. This development could see the market for primary auto components for vehicle brands increase from $ 0.36 billion today to about $ 18 billion in seven years’ time. At the same time, we could see a similar, if not larger, scale of increase in the secondary market for components. In short, an entire component industry waits to be developed in the wake of the current wave of foreign car manufacturing investment in Russia.
Figure 4. The prospect of Russian manufacturing
4. CHINESE AND INDIAN BRANDS TO GAIN MARKET SHARE
Market share expectations continue to shift in favour of emerging Asian and mature Japanese and Korean brands; U.S. brands are expected to perform worst. Year on year Chinese brands have moved from second to first place in market share expectations, and Indian brands from fourth to second place, relegating Toyota from top position to third. Expectations of Honda’s market share have grown, as have expectations for many European brands. Meanwhile, expectations for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have declined further from an already low level, with 63 percent of respondents expecting Ford to lose market share, 66 percent for General Motors and 69 percent for Chrysler. On a regional basis, EMA companies are markedly more optimistic on market share expectation than companies in the Americas or ASPAC - and in particular, they are more optimistic on the prospects for European brands (more than half of EMA companies see market share increases for VW and BMW).
Companies believe that even when China and India are discounted, emerging markets will still grow faster than any other region. Expectations of growth over the next three 48 years in markets outside China and India are globally well-distributed. Expectations are strongest for Central and South America, reflecting the relative resilience of Brazilian 36 demand as economies elsewhere turns down. Nevertheless, a significant minority of respondents also expect strong growth in the Middle East and Africa, and again in 24 Russia and Ukraine.
Figure 5. Markets and regions will present the greatest demand for consumption in the next 3 years
5.GROWTH MARKET BY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Drivers of future cross-border automotive deals will likely include the arrival of new global players, emerging market growth, and currency fluctuations. In many cases, automotive companies in emerging nations are quickly becoming global players looking for increased access to global customers, markets, and technology. Examples in recent deals include India’s Tata and Mahindra & Mahindra, China’s Chery and SAIC, and Russia’s Russian Machines. This trend is likely to feed cross-border deal flow over the next several years. In turn, companies from developed nations seeking to gain further access to the quickly growing markets in the BRIC countries are also likely to be a factor in future cross-border deal activity. This could be especially true of component suppliers who are seeking proximity to local VMs. There were early signs of this in 2007 including Cummins’ purchase of the remaining shares of Tata Holset (a joint venture founded to produce diesel engines in India) and Bosch’s increased investment in Motor Industries, an Indian based component supplier. Finally, the weakening of the US dollar versus global currencies in 2008 vs. 2007 is likely to encourage bargain hunting in the US. This trend is already materialising in early 2008 as interest in US automotive assets increases. Overall, the currency situation could lead to a significantly larger net deal deficit for the US in 2008 vs. 2007, including large net deal surpluses from Asia, RoW, and potentially Europe.
Figure 6. Net flow of business by region 2007
6. CONCLUSION
Taking as a criterion performance on the global market, one can conclude that the European automotive industry is without any doubt competitive. It has expanded its export shares, and has maintained or improved slightly its share in global sales. Its position in emerging markets such as China and the Russian Federation is strong and offers prospects for further growth. This success of the European automotive industry in international competition is primarily based on its dominance of a large, loyal, sophisticated and diversified home market. Moreover, enlargement has been beneficial to the industry through its productive base and market effects.
However, not all is positive. If the performance of the German, French and Spanish industry is strong, Italy and the UK have lost market shares. The new production locations in Eastern Europe will increase pressures on existing locations.Finally, if the home market is indeed the largest in the World, it relies mostly on the replacement of existing cars and its growth potential (at least for EU-15 countries) has peaked.
REFERENCES:
[1].Achterholt, U. (2009) Industry concerns and expectations 2009-2013 Momentum, KPMG’s
Global Auto Executive Survey 2009
[2]. Elie, P.; McCarth, P. (2008) Drive value* Automotive M&A Insights
[3]. Matthew, F. (2008) European Union Outlook, Global Automotive Perspective
[4]. Root, S.; Tobin, P.; Sherbakova, N.; Komarov, A. (2008) Automotive Industry Prospects in Russia, Global Automotive Perspectives
汽車工業(yè)的全球視野
摘要：汽車行業(yè)的特點是一個相對較低的貿(mào)易/銷售比。雖然世界上大多數(shù)汽車生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)價值鏈在各個國家傳播，但品牌仍被認(rèn)為是反映了國家的某些特性。國際化戰(zhàn)略在產(chǎn)品生命周期的變化，汽車制造商傾向于追求截然相反的策略。在成熟的市場，它是關(guān)于管理的靜態(tài)表面之下，在新興市場的動態(tài)環(huán)境，企業(yè)必須從戰(zhàn)略地位，以受益于增長機(jī)會。然而，不成熟的市場，正確的策略和執(zhí)行，顯然，傳統(tǒng)的OEM不能得益于新興市場結(jié)構(gòu)性問題的持續(xù)成熟的市場操作，最終將搶劫但所有的機(jī)會最有力的競爭對手爭奪新興市場。
【關(guān)鍵字】競爭力；汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)；全球市場；銷售；投資
1.國際市場
在歐洲，重組過程的特點是與新的歐盟成員國在中歐和東歐（CEE）作為移東西方的壓力閥和一個銷售停滯不前的背景下，原材料成本上升、競爭加劇，亞洲汽車制造商和下降的新車價格。CEE給汽車制造商獲得低成本的勞動力和新的客戶，并允許新的進(jìn)入者，如現(xiàn)代和起亞，不遺留成本競爭。凈效果是平衡與西歐失去150萬容量自2000在該地區(qū)的汽車制造商的腳印，而東歐國家將有能力增加180萬單位2009。而成熟市場OEM逐漸與市場的具體挑戰(zhàn)了他們的交手，五花八門的戰(zhàn)略挑戰(zhàn)的重量僅為重考慮之前的新興市場投資。戰(zhàn)略挑戰(zhàn)來自兩個來源的立法或競爭，同時增加成本，市場競爭將產(chǎn)生更好的性能，只能通過增加市場份額、降低成本。這些限制包括提高燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性和CO2的目標(biāo)，回收舉措（例如，歐盟報廢汽車指令），改變消費者的口味，車內(nèi)容升級，高端品牌的增長，大宗商品價格的上漲和全球供應(yīng)鏈管理，等等。
圖1.全球視角
一旦汽車制造商滿足這些成熟的市場挑戰(zhàn)，下一階段是在世界的增長市場有效競爭。從2007到2015，新興市場預(yù)計將在同一時期的成熟市場的18倍，預(yù)計增長的輕汽車組裝。普華永道預(yù)測，輕型汽車百分之95的增長將來自新興市場。在這些市場中，金磚四國（巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國）國家在增長方面最為杰出，其預(yù)測的增長率從百分之58增長到2015，從2007增長到。在金磚四國中，普華永道預(yù)計，中國和印度的增長導(dǎo)致在輕型汽車產(chǎn)量為OEM看國家一個超過20億人口的需求，隨著人口較少但仍具有重要戰(zhàn)略意義的俄羅斯和巴西的預(yù)期增長迅速。
這些分歧主要汽車制造商的策略，這些競爭對手的最佳執(zhí)行新興和成熟的市場策略將成為贏家。這些管理位置問題的同時，與一個產(chǎn)品組合，解決了異常的市場需求，最有吸引力的成本，將利潤從具有挑戰(zhàn)性的全球環(huán)境。在各種競爭對手中，豐田似乎認(rèn)為，盡管最近在北美國和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，但其執(zhí)行的是最平衡的全球戰(zhàn)略。2015，普華永道預(yù)測豐田保持領(lǐng)先的全球聯(lián)盟集團(tuán)與1130萬輕型汽車產(chǎn)量預(yù)測。豐田背后的是通用汽車的增長預(yù)測，得益于其強(qiáng)大的新興市場的存在，和動態(tài)的雷諾-日產(chǎn)聯(lián)盟。而新興市場或低成本汽車曾是雷諾和日產(chǎn)的一個重要的區(qū)別，它的許多競爭對手正在展開競爭，豐田以其等程序和大眾的NCC程序。低成本的汽車將越來越重視全球汽車制造商，因為他們尋求加快新興市場的發(fā)展，從而減少在世界上的競爭和挑戰(zhàn)性的市場表現(xiàn)的壓力。
2.歐盟的前景
盡管短期內(nèi)收縮，從2000到2003，西歐自上世紀(jì)90年代末以來享有相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定，銷量徘徊在1450萬馬克在2000年代中期，缺乏動態(tài)增長是最成熟的市場如歐洲西部的一個特點，在更換周期和當(dāng)時的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢驅(qū)動需求。在波蘭這樣的國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，捷克共和國，匈牙利和斯洛伐克，以及羅馬尼亞（加入2007），催生了一個繁榮的銷售量。表演的明星是羅馬尼亞，那里的銷售額增長超過百分之25，在2007-08賽季，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的改善和達(dá)契亞洛根正是低成本汽車旨在促進(jìn)在新興市場的銷售類型的部署。波蘭似乎也達(dá)到了它的潛力，銷售額幾乎增加了百分之23，達(dá)到293000同比增長2007。
圖2.歐洲地區(qū)總成2000與2010（萬臺）
在西歐，一個鑲嵌的因素影響了新的汽車市場。在德國，在瓦百分之3增加的影響繼續(xù)持有德國市場回來，所以盡管有較高的平均車輛PARC年齡和越來越積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)消息，2007的銷售額已經(jīng)從2006下降近百分之10。西班牙的其他大型金融市場，西班牙也進(jìn)入了負(fù)增長，因為該國的建設(shè)帶動的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮結(jié)束，消費者信心下降。意大利，法國和英國公布的平均同比增長率為2007，與意大利，特別是，表現(xiàn)良好（增長百分之7），部分歸功于一系列新的車輛介紹，從國內(nèi)代工菲亞特。英國（百分之2.5）和法國（百分之3.2）也發(fā)布了積極的網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)；然而，越來越多的不安，總的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，失業(yè)率居高不下的網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接在法國，在英國的信用成本的增加，以及生活成本的上升幾乎在所有市場（成熟和新興）-顯示圖片2008將不那么樂觀
3.供應(yīng)狀況
由于上面提到的穩(wěn)定需求，歐盟輕型車的產(chǎn)量也一直保持穩(wěn)定。輕型汽車總成的產(chǎn)量上升到1883萬個單位的2007，比前一個高峰的1806萬5000個單位的2000個顯著增加。在近幾年的增長，在近幾年的增長，產(chǎn)量增加了近100萬個單位的2007。展望未來，輕型汽車總成的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該繼續(xù)增長，至少要到2013。然后，它預(yù)計將達(dá)到2074萬9000臺，近200萬臺，超過2007的輸出。在此之后，成交量可能會穩(wěn)定在2070萬個左右的單位。這一增長的來源將是雙重的。首先，市場復(fù)蘇的組合，更重要的是，新的模型方案的投資將看到增加從傳統(tǒng)的西歐汽車組裝國家德國，法國和意大利?？偟膩碚f，這三個將看到2007和800000之間的2015個單位的增加超過了。其次，歐洲中部的國家，特別是那些加入歐盟的2004和2007，也會看到明顯的放量上漲。其出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長和新興的國內(nèi)需求將推動這一增長。在歐洲中部的關(guān)鍵組件的位置將是捷克共和國，波蘭，斯洛伐克，羅馬尼亞?？偟膩碚f，他們將占到和2007之間的和2015之間的額外的組裝量的超過100萬單位。特定的聯(lián)盟團(tuán)體的投資活動，自然會對數(shù)量增長有顯著影響。前五名貢獻(xiàn)者增長2007-2015期間將現(xiàn)代集團(tuán)，大眾，保時捷，菲亞特，雷諾-日產(chǎn)和福特集團(tuán)。由于在羅馬尼亞的投資，雷諾日產(chǎn)和福特將享受銷量增長。在所有這些情況下，汽車制造商將依賴于國內(nèi)銷售（在成熟和新興的歐洲市場），越來越多的出口，以鞏固這些增長戰(zhàn)略。在波蘭、羅馬尼亞的重要中心的歐洲市場，捷克共和國和斯洛伐克，制造商將增加更多的能力，利用低成本的定位和國內(nèi)銷售的增長潛力。因此，在這些植物的模型將是一個組合的低成本、新興市場的產(chǎn)品和車輛出口到發(fā)達(dá)市場在歐洲和世界各地的。羅馬尼亞，特別是已成為新的投資重點。在2015和2007之間，其新的容量將由一個預(yù)計的330000個單位擴(kuò)大。這部分將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張的達(dá)契亞業(yè)務(wù)由業(yè)主雷諾，但最近收購的植物（與擴(kuò)容擔(dān)保）由福特也是一個重要的驅(qū)動程序。感謝加入，羅馬尼亞越來越對其他原始設(shè)備制造商希望調(diào)整他們的歐洲足跡的議程。
俄羅斯市場是不尋常的，有這么多的外國球員，這樣的最初低預(yù)測的生產(chǎn)計劃。大多數(shù)汽車制造商似乎是明智的對沖風(fēng)險，并規(guī)劃了本地生產(chǎn)的平衡策略，并繼續(xù)進(jìn)口。根據(jù)俄羅斯的投資條件如何發(fā)展，汽車制造商有機(jī)會增加或減少進(jìn)口和本地生產(chǎn)之間的平衡。下面的表格說明了最新的汽車研究所估計，在不同的時間視野中，由品牌起源計劃的地方生產(chǎn)水平的估計。下一個表表明，俄羅斯的外國汽車品牌的生產(chǎn)可能會從2007左右上升到450000左右，在七年內(nèi)的一個可持續(xù)的水平約300萬個單位。幾乎所有的增長將國外OEM品牌或新品牌在俄羅斯境外戰(zhàn)略投資者合作開發(fā)，如伏爾加汽車公司和雷諾之間。這對俄羅斯的汽車零部件產(chǎn)業(yè)的未來意味著什么？
圖3.汽車銷售
從一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)必要性，大多數(shù)汽車制造商將試圖本地化更多的零部件供應(yīng)減少關(guān)稅和運輸費用，并從當(dāng)?shù)氐墓べY和原材料成本效益。如果這一趨勢是成功的，本地生產(chǎn)的零部件制造的百分比應(yīng)該從百分之10提高到百分之50以上，在未來十年，假設(shè)組件成本是約百分之60的價格的汽車。這一發(fā)展可以看到汽車品牌的主要汽車零部件市場從3億6000萬美元增加到七年的時間里，大約180億美元。同時，我們可以看到類似的，如果不大，規(guī)模的增加，在二級市場的組成部分。總之，在俄羅斯的外國汽車制造業(yè)投資的當(dāng)前浪潮之后，一個完整的組成部分產(chǎn)業(yè)有待發(fā)展。
圖4.俄羅斯制造業(yè)前景展望
4.中國和印